Twin Probabilities Problem

Question

1 in 8 sets of twins are sets of identical twins. While talking to Jessica, you learn that she has a twin named Emily. What's the probability that Emily and Jessica are identical twins?

The answer isn't 1/8th.

Gareth McCaughan · Answer

Approximately

because

Why

Reality is a bit more complicated because

ffao · Answer

Assuming that Jessica and Emily are both girls, the probability that we have identical twins with the same gender is:

The probability that we have fraternal twins with the same gender is:

The probability twins with the same gender are identical is therefore:

Twin Probabilities Problem

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