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Guess your hat color, but you don't have to

Puzzling Asked on September 4, 2021

Here is the puzzle:

N hats are put on N logicians, each hat color is selected randomly: black or white.
As usual, every logician doesn’t see the hat on his own head, but sees the rest. They cannot communicate in any way possible.
Each logician at the same moment must answer the question – "what color is the hat on your head?". And there are only 3 possible answers they can say: "Black", "White" and "I don’t know".
If at least one color is named incorrectly logicians fail and die. If no one named a correct color they die just the same. Otherwise (if at least one answer is correct) – logicians survive.
As usual, they have time to discuss a strategy before the hats are put on their heads.
What’s the strategy, which gives the highest probability to survive?

It’s fairly simple to find an optimal answer for $N = 3$ ($p_{survival} = 3/4$). It’s harder, but possible to find an optimal strategy for $N = 7$ ($p_{survival} = 7/8$).
My question – is there a strategy, which has $p_{survival} > 3/4$ for $N le 6$?
How about a strategy with $p_{survival} > 7/8$ for $N = 10$?
I don’t know the answer to these questions. Please either provide such a strategy(-ies), or prove that it is impossible.
Ideally I want to know What is the maximum probability value for $N = 6$ and $N = 10$? (i.e. with a proof that we can’t do any better).

P.S. A semi-general strategy, which is optimal for $N = 3$ and $N = 7$ you can find here, but if you don’t know it, I suggest you to try to find it on your own, it’s a very fun puzzle.

3 Answers

Reframe the problem:

The best answer I can find in the literature:

Correct answer by tehtmi on September 4, 2021

WRONG AND PARTIAL ANSWER I thought this was a promising approach but it's not, have a look to the comments. I highlighted in bold the parts where my reasoning was wrong.

If the number $n$ of logician is

They can use

To answer the question in which $N=10$:

I'm afraid this strategy is not applicable optimally for a lot of values of $N$ (for example it is not possible to achieve a survival probability greater than $frac{3}{4}$ for $N=4,5,6$).

Answered by melfnt on September 4, 2021

Simple 100% strategy for any n>1.

The logicians determine that this is not the typical framing for questions of this type, and that due to this particular framework there is a simple and trivial strategy for staying alive.

  1. During preliminary discussion, designate a non-suicidal logician to be the designated guesser.
  2. Everyone else is instructed to look at that guesser's hat and nod yes for black or shake your head no for white.
  3. If the non-suicidal logician sees shaking heads looking at him that logician says white, if they are nodding yes, he says black.
  4. Everyone else says "I don't know"

The logicians end up living to wonder if it would have been better for them to become suicidal in situations like this just so they wouldn't constantly be put in these types of situations.

Answered by Mathaddict on September 4, 2021

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