Personal Finance & Money Asked on August 14, 2021
It doesn’t make much sense to me why the stock market (sometimes, today isn’t really an example) does more poorly when inflation is high. If CPI was high, I would think you’d want your $$$ invested in something else so inflation isn’t eating it, right? People selling their stock is meaning people are trading their shares for USD again. If inflation was high, I’d want to invest in the market and (hopefully) beat inflation so I’m not theoretically losing.
Can someone tell me why there’s sometimes a sell-off in the stock market due to high CPI levels?
For any transaction, there must be a buyer and a seller so even when newspapers talk about a "sell-off" or "selling pressure", there are always an equal number of buyers and sellers. Whether the price of stocks are going up or down or staying the same, you've got the same number of buyers and sellers.
If inflation increases and nothing else changes, a stock is intrinsically worth less under basically any valuation model you'd care to choose. If you're trying to determine what a share of Acme Widgets is worth, that's going to depend on the present value of the profits Acme is going to make in the future. In order to determine the present value of a fixed amount of profit a year from now, you need to apply the discount rate. And the discount rate will increase when inflation increases because a dollar a year from now is worth less when inflation is 5% than when it is 1%.
Picking the simplest stock valuation model, the dividend discount model
Fair Price of Stock = (Dividend Amount)/ (Cost of Capital - Growth Rate of Dividend)
where
Cost of Capital = Risk-Free Rate + Beta * Market Risk Premium
When inflation increases, the risk-free rate increases (investors want the government to pay more interest when they borrow money in a 10% inflation environment than in a 1% inflation environment). If nothing else changes-- the dividend remains the same and the growth rate of dividends remain the same (beta and the market risk premium are functionally constants in this discussion)-- then the fair price of the stock declines when inflation increases. If everyone in the market knows the fair price has declined, people will buy and sell at a lower price and the market price of the stock will decline.
Of course, this vastly simplifies the reality of the situation. There are lots of different valuation models that make lots of different assumptions. Different market participants use different models, input different parameters, etc. Some market participants pay attention to valuation models, some don't. When inflation rises, different companies are affected differently. Some companies are stuck absorbing some or all of the increase in prices of their inputs because they're locked into contracts with their customers. Some companies can pass along price increases from their suppliers so their dividends and dividend growth rate would simply increase along with inflation so inflation wouldn't change their prices. Some companies can use an inflationary environment to increase prices and see their growth rate increase faster than inflation.
Correct answer by Justin Cave on August 14, 2021
People selling their stock is meaning people are trading their shares for USD again.
Regardless of what inflation is doing, I need USD to buy groceries, pay my electric bill, etc. If I am retired and living off of my investment portfolio, I will need to sell assets to cover my expenses, regardless of CPI. I might try to do some predictive planning around when I convert assets to cash (e.g. yearly vs. monthly), but inevitably I do have to sell (or go back to work).
Sure, I'd like to keep my money invested invested to beat inflation so that I can pay my future living expenses, but I still need to pay my current expenses now.
Note that this selling isn't due to high CPI, it just happens regardless.
Answered by yoozer8 on August 14, 2021
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