Personal Finance & Money Asked by kandi on September 25, 2021
Consider the following screenshot from Thomson Reuters Eikon with the freshest price targets for Sberbank (Russia’s most expensive bank):
As you can see, the price targets range from +12.36% to 57.31% compared to the current price.
I see two possible interpretations of this:
This is just an example, my question isn’t about Sberbank specifically but about situations like this in general (when most of the analysts price a stock significantly higher/lower the than market). How should I interpret such situations? Is there any value in analysts’ price targets? If yes, should I invest in such cases? If no, what are they getting paid for?
The major way to predict stock prices is analyzing the fundamental value of the company, based on growth, earnings, dividends, etc. As an example, an analyst may conclude that a company should be worth 20 times it earnings. He may expect that the company will grow next year by 5% and increase the earning by 10% and increase the estimated value accordingly. This may look like an exact science by computing two digits after the comma but as you can see there are a lof of assumptions and by changing any of those parameters slightly one might end up with a completely different value:
Some people predict stock prices by analyzing trends in the charts and hoping that either current trends will continue or past trends will repeat themselves. This is an even less exact approach to predict prices.
Should I follow these advices?
As explained this is inherently imprecise, even if we assume a capable analyst giving their best effort. There is no thing such as guaranteed free money.
Answered by Manziel on September 25, 2021
Your question has intrigued academic researchers for decades. Here what a survey paper finds:
Answered by Orange Coast- reinstate Monica on September 25, 2021
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