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Which of Stocks, Bonds, Real Estate, Bitcoin, Gold, are not subject to devaluation of money?

Personal Finance & Money Asked on March 8, 2021

Currency in circulation from year 2000 to 2020 appeared to have increased 3x. And a cappuccino in California went from $1.75 to $4.40, a beef noodle from $3.50 to $11, and a house from $600k to $1.5 million. Salary seemed to moved from $60k to $180k as well. Total compensation from $100k to $300k.

So if somebody is holding cash, now the cash would have shrunk to 1/3 or 1/2 if a 2% interest can still make $100 become $148 in 20 years. That, together if I sell the house, it "appreciated by 0.9 million" and subtracting the $250k exemption, $650k of that may be subject to capital gain tax, state and federal.

Which of Stocks, Bonds, Real Estate, Bitcoin, Gold, are not subject to devaluation of money? If it is bonds, holding it from year 2000 to 2020, since it is just some type of collectible debt, isn’t it very similar to how cash would devaluate? For stocks, it seems growth stock and dividend earning stocks might be different too: if the dividend earning stock is very much tied to cash, won’t it devaluate too?

The graph:

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3 Answers

You have a lot of controversial claims buried in your question, but I'll just directly tackle the fundamental misunderstanding I see, in that you think stock investment is subject to inflation:

"For stocks, it seems growth stock and dividend earning stocks might be different too: if the dividend earning stock is very much tied to cash, won't it devaluate too?"

The stock market represents ownership of public companies. People buy and sell ownership of these companies based on (in theory) the ultimate value of all future cash flows that such ownership will provide. That means dividends and liquidation proceeds. Companies that pay no dividends [probably because they can use every scrap of cash to keep investing in the same business model] just have a growing balance sheet, and they will ultimately either be bought out [giving owners a cash payout or perhaps shares in the acquiring company]. In that sense, dividends are not 'income' in the economic sense, they are just shaving off accrued profits in and exchanging them into cash to be delivered to shareholders.

So yes, dividends are paid in cash, but those cash payments are made at future dates in time. The cash that will be paid by TSLA as a dividend in the future doesn't even exist yet; they still need to earn revenue to be able to generate excess profits to pay future dividends.

In that way, any non-cash investment (including things like money market funds, if interest earned is near inflation) is basically unaffected by inflation of cash itself, as long as it isn't the ultra-rare "hyperinflation" that must always be watched for by central banks. This is the fundamental flaw of asking for BTC to be a replacement of cash - the true long-term economic costs of inflation only really hold true if you have a stack of cash under your mattress, not if you spend your money or invest it.

And of course, I can't answer a question which lists bitcoin without adding that I do not believe it has any inherent value, and unlike fiat currency, it cannot pay a tax debt to the government, so its value is highly suspect [hence the massive volatility - called "deflation" when the price goes up, and humorously "inflation" when the price goes down].

Answered by Grade 'Eh' Bacon on March 8, 2021

Don't confuse the inflation of a currency with the change in a very specific cost of living. I highly doubt that real estate prices in, say, Wyoming have tripled in the last 10 years. And cappuccino prices may have to do more with supply and demand of that product than inflation. Salaries are also not only locationally-dependent, but industry-dependent. I doubt that school teachers have seen their salaries triple in the last 20 years, even in California.

According to this site, $1 in 2000 had the buying power of about $1.50 today, or an annualized inflation of about 2% per year.

Certainly the cost of living in your area has increased more than that, but so too have salaries (again, on average, so some more than others). If your compensation tripled in the last 20 years, you're doing much better than inflation (5.6% per year vs 2% per year).

Most anything that returns money is subject to inflation of the currency. Even a fixed-rate bond is, since the future payments are fixed in today's dollars. Floating-rate bonds might do better if inflation is higher than expected, but it depends on how well inflation and the interest rated the bond is based on are linked. There are, however, inflation-linked bonds that return a variable amount linked to a CPI of some sort, but they are priced according to the current expectation of inflation, meaning you don't make a risk-free profit unless inflation is higher than expected.

Answered by D Stanley on March 8, 2021

A simple answer:

Which of Stocks, Bonds, Real Estate, Bitcoin, Gold, are not subject to devaluation of money?

All of these can plummet in dollar price, and often do, over (say) 10-50 year time spans.

It's Just That Simple.

"Devaluation of money"

Nobody has a clue what this is.

Nobody has a clue what inflation is.

There are a couple of "measures of inflation" but that's just some body of academics who pick, out of the air, some numbers. It means literally nothing.

There is no agreed, definitive, common or even logical meaning to the phrase "devaluation of money" and no agreement at all about it.

There have been a couple examples of hyperinflation, but academics use them randomly in wildly different ways to support completely different ideas.

Books.

I suggest reading this unusual book

https://www.amazon.com/Free-Banking-Britain-Lawrence-White/dp/0255363753

to gain a sort of base understanding of matterz. Not that that helps.

Answered by Fattie on March 8, 2021

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