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Is this "theoretical Bitcoin income" a meaningful number in any way?

Personal Finance & Money Asked by Andro on April 8, 2021

I have made a little calculation in my computer which does this:

$total_theoretical_profits_in_USD = $my_current_Bitcoin_fortune_in_USD - total_amount_in_USD_that_I_have_ever_spent_on_buying_Bitcoin;
$theoretical_monthly_salary_in_USD = $total_theoretical_profits_in_USD / $number_of_months_since_early_2013_when_I_first_bought_a_Bitcoin;

In my case, $theoretical_monthly_salary_in_USD is currently $4,390 USD.

According to my simple mind, that would mean that, between early 2013 and today (2021), I’ve "made" $4,390 USD per month.

But, of course, I realize that I haven’t "made" that at all. It’s just a theoretical number which, if I had spent it (whether directly or by converting it to fiat first), the number would be lower than it currently is, so I never actually "had" that money. Also, the price has gone up and down, so this is a "perfect linear" curve… I think. So an average. Plus I’ve bought every now and then for these years in between, but that’s included in the calculation (I believe).

Can I use this number for anything meaningful? Is there any way that I could get $4,390 USD per month from now on by doing something risk-free? Without spending the coins? (Assuming that the Bitcoin curve stays on this average climb.)

Since I currently get in less than $1,000 fiat per month in total, this would be "living a rich life" to me. More than 4x what I currently have would enable me to actually afford a place to live, and eat something other than oatmeal porridge for every meal…

I don’t know how much of that I would have to pay in taxes, but even if they would eat 50%, that’s still over twice the amount I have now.

2 Answers

Can I use this number for anything meaningful? Is there any way that I could get $4,390 USD per month from now on by doing something risk-free? Without spending the coins? (Assuming that the Bitcoin curve stays on this average climb.)

The simple answer is "No".

You only "get" that much increase if that money is "in there".

As soon as you start "taking it out" you "get" less.

It's really that simple.

There's only one "theoretical" way to do what you say:

  1. Say you own outright a house worth about $1m

  2. Let's say - and this is ridiculous, but stick with me - let's say that due to time travel you - and everyone else - factually knows that ten years from now, the house will be worth $5m. Note that means you have a "four million profit" coming in ten years.

  3. In that case, it would be quite easy to get someone to loan you, say a million bucks.

  4. As you can see, it all works out fine: (A) you have a million bucks to live a moderate life for ten years (B) ten years from now you sell the house for the five million (C) you pay back the bank the (let's say) two million being the one million plus interest (D) you even have a two million profit (not as good as four million, but still ok)

(This sort of thing can happen in incredibly unusual circumstances, like, a farmer finds an oil field under his land, etc.)

Just to be clear you WILL NOT be able to do this, I'm just outlining it for you theoretically.

I guess, say, your Mom was incredibly rich (I mean with cash money). You could say to her:

Look Mom, my bc is worth $1m today. We all know it will be worth $2m in ten years. Would you mind, loaning me say $200,000 in cash, and I will pay that back with interest in ten years?

That's really the only way to achieve what you're asking. Get a loan (in cash) against the supposed future value.

Answered by Fattie on April 8, 2021

Can I use this number for anything meaningful?

No.

Is there any way that I could get $4,390 USD per month from now on by doing something risk-free? Without spending the coins?

The only way to "extract" cash from an asset without selling it is to borrow against it's value.

But since the value of Btc is highly volatile, a competent lender would only loan you a fraction of the actual value. And... you'd have to pay it back, either from other income or by selling enough Btc to cover the loan and interest.

(Assuming that the Bitcoin curve stays on this average climb.)

Don't do that!!!

Answered by RonJohn on April 8, 2021

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