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Is there an ETF that performs consistently better than VGT over multiple date ranges?

Personal Finance & Money Asked by jacknad on June 19, 2021

It is surprising since the index it is based on is not well known, but when ever I compare it over 6mo, 1y, 2y, 3y, 5y, etc, the only one that comes close and occasionally does a bit better is QQQ, which is based on the NASDAQ, and then, for only one of those date ranges.

One Answer

Your questions is unanswerable the way you wanted it.

Time horizon
Even 5y is a rather short horizon for investing in the stock market. Investments are judged by performance of decades, not years. The main reason being that investments need not only perform in the good times but also in the bad times during a prolonged recession. Otherwise performance cannot be "consistently" better

Composition
If you look at the index composition, this is basically an Apple and Microsoft ETF. This level of concentration can make for stellar performance in the right times, like Apple going from a company with high hopes but mediocre performance to one of the most valuable companies of the world. But it also makes for really bad performance if the high-weight companies fail to deliver

Focus
Both ETFs you mention are based on the tech sector which has indeed seen great gains. However, the tech sector is a classic growth sector. Historical data shows that growth stocks tend to perform pretty well during extended bull markets but pretty bad during bear markets when all those high hopes come crashing down to reality. The problem is, we will only known in hindsight how far they will rise before the next bear market and how far they will drop when the time inevitably comes.

So, comparing ETFs for minuscule differences is not really helpful in selecting one of them.

Correct answer by Manziel on June 19, 2021

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