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Implications of a long-term stock market shutdown

Personal Finance & Money Asked by mcmayer on April 3, 2021

It is well known that circuit breaker rules and technical glitches can shut down stock markets, and they do so for a day at most (e.g. via NYSE rule 80B). Natural disasters (e.g. hurricanes) and major events (9/11) can shut down markets for a few days.

But, can the stock market be shut down for an extended period of time, i.e. weeks or months? Historically, the answer is yes: According to “What Does It Take to Close the Stock Market?” (Kevin Chupka, 2012) the longest NYSE shutdown was at the beginning of WWI in 1914 for more than 4 1/2 months.

This leads to the question. Is it possible to assess the economic implications, and therefore the feasibility, of such a long-term shutdown of the stock market, today?

2 Answers

It would be bad for the economy to shut down the market. First, trading financial products is big business. With most trading electronic why shut the market and directly harm economic output? Second, functioning markets are important to companies conducting business with one another. By shutting the market you're harming that process and making it more difficult. You could estimate the first directly. The second would be extremely more difficult.

I've yet to hear a good reason for shutting down the market. Your question implies that maybe you have a reason in mind. Do you mind sharing it?

For more detailed info see my response here to a similar question: What would be the effect of closing stock market trading for two months to Coronavirus?

Answered by RWP - Down by the Bay on April 3, 2021

For the sake of putting in an answer:

It's incredibly unlikely the major markets would shut down for more than a day or two for any reason.

Note that, of course, one can ask truly cataclysmic questions such as "will the USG go absolutely broke and cease to exist?" or "In the UK will the military stage a coup?" or "Will an asteroid crush the planet?"

Of course in each case you could say "there's a slight chance."

Barring incredibly major ELE disasters, the major exchanges won't close for periods over a day or two.

Note that: say the US suffers hyperinflation. That won't happen literally overnight. It will be an orderly disaster over a few months.

I don't really think any answer is possible here other than "Based on a clear view of 200 years of history, it's incredibly unlikely they would 'dramatically close for a long period.'"

Answered by Fattie on April 3, 2021

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