TransWikia.com

If a European investor goes long or short the US ultrabond future, are they taking any forex risk or is it all interest rate risk?

Personal Finance & Money Asked on April 16, 2021

(The Ultrabond future is a bet on the price of 30-year US treasury bonds, which are dollar denominated.)

One Answer

For a futures position with typical margin, the risk is almost entirely interest rate risk. This is because the interest rate risk is leveraged but the forex risk is not (another way to look at it: the leverage is achieved by effectively borrowing in USD). If the bond futures price in USD is unchanged but USD declines 1% relative to EUR, the investor has lost 1% on whatever margin deposit was made. On the other hand, if the bond futures price in USD declines 1%, the investor has lost much more than 1% on the margin deposit (approximately 20% loss on minimum margin).

Answered by nanoman on April 16, 2021

Add your own answers!

Ask a Question

Get help from others!

© 2024 TransWikia.com. All rights reserved. Sites we Love: PCI Database, UKBizDB, Menu Kuliner, Sharing RPP