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How do I find the probability of a sold put being assigned?

Personal Finance & Money Asked by Chris P on April 23, 2021

I read where if you sell a put you should make sure that the probability of being put the stock is no more than 30%. This is assuming of course that you don’t really want to own the stock. How do I find what the probability is? Is there a greek symbol or something for that?

One Answer

The Delta of an option is a rough estimate of the probability of an option expiring in-the-money (and hence getting assigned). An at-the-money option with a delta of about 0.5 has roughly a 50% change of expiring in the money (the underlying price could go either way), a deep-in-the-money option with a delta approaching 1 will almost assuredly pay out, and a deep out-of-the-money option with a delta approaching zero has almost no change of paying out.

In reality, delta is always slightly larger than the probability of exercise, and the difference is greater for highly volatile underlyings and longer-dated options, but the relationship still holds, and since you're using a rule-of-thumb (30%) anyways, should be "good enough" for your rule.

Answered by D Stanley on April 23, 2021

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