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Carry trading using forward contracts

Personal Finance & Money Asked on April 20, 2021

I am curious as to how someone performs a carry trade using forward contracts.

I’ve read that you go long on the currency that has the higher interest rate but this confuses me. In particular, I’ve read you take

  • an "uncovered forward position in the high interest rate currencies" source

  • a "long forward position in the high-interest curency using deliverable forex swaps" source

How do the mechanics of this work? You’re borrowing in the currency that has the low IR and lending/accruing interest in the high interest currency with the intention of paying back the loan at maturity (i.e. purchasing the low interest security), so I’m very confused.

Any help in understanding this would be massively appreciated as neither of these resources does any type of job explaining how this works.

One Answer

The carry trade is a much simpler process than this makes out and doesn't require FX futures or swaps. Essentially you borrow an amount of money (from the bank, by issuing bonds etc. doesn't matter really) at a low interest rate in one currency, convert the borrowed money to a higher interest rate currency and lend it back out at that rate. After the loan time the borrower pays you back in their country's currency which you convert back into the other currency to pay off the loan you took out. Your profit is the difference.

The problem with doing this is that when the money that you have lent out is repaid it is repaid in the higher interest rate currency but you owe the money in the other currency. This exposes you to FX risk on top of the interest rate risk that you are bearing which you want to mitigate as much as possible. To do so you can lock in the exchange rate for the time when the principal of the loan is to be repaid to you with an FX future or forward for the same underlying currency pair. Since you know when you want to convert the money in the first place an FX swap, which locks in the FX rate for each "leg" - i.e. each time you do an FX conversion, is ideal.

With a locked in future interest rate you forgo the chance that the FX rate will move in your favour for a guaranteed rate in the future. The above analysis is based on zero coupon bonds but extends trivially to coupon bearing bonds - you just have two known cash flows in two currencies at regular intervals so can add futures or swaps to lock in the FX rate at those junctures.

Answered by MD-Tech on April 20, 2021

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