TransWikia.com

Does "odds-on favourite" mean more than 50% chance?

English Language & Usage Asked by Batry on January 19, 2021

My understanding is that "odds-on" and the phrase "odds-on favourite" do not have the exact same meaning.

  1. Odds-on: More than likely to happen, so more than 50% probability.
  2. Odds-on favourite: "a person, team, horse, etc that is regarded as the most likely to win a competition". In this case, I don’t believe it necessarily has to be more than 50% probability; just more probable than the other options.

Please confirm if "odds-on favourite" needs to mean more than 50% likely or not..

One Answer

You forgot to include in your question your own research on odds-on, which was clearly consistent with (for example):

Odds-on = having or viewed as having a better than even chance to win “the odds-on favorite”

Merriam Webster

The odds are the ratio of one outcome to the others. For example:

Odds. Ratios of probabilities, they can be defined in two different ways: odds in favor of an event ("odds on") or against an event A ("Odds Against). Odds can be expressed as a ratio of the probability an event will happen divided by the probability an event won't happen: Odds in favor of A = A / (1 - A), usually simplified to lowest terms., For instance, if the probability of an event occurring is 0.75, then the odds for it happening are 0.75/0.25 = 3/1 = 3 to 1 for, while the probability that it doesn't occur is 1 to 3 against.

Data science

With all this in mind it is clear that the odds-on favorite has a better than even (more than 50%) chance of winning, leaving less than 50% chance of winning to any or all of the others. There can therefore be only one such odds-on favorite.

This negates your second option.

Answered by Anton on January 19, 2021

Add your own answers!

Ask a Question

Get help from others!

© 2024 TransWikia.com. All rights reserved. Sites we Love: PCI Database, UKBizDB, Menu Kuliner, Sharing RPP