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Risk with unknown probability distribution of the outcomes

Economics Asked on May 1, 2021

From Wikipedia:
"Risk aversion comes from a situation where a probability can be assigned to each possible outcome of a situation and it is defined by the preference between a risky alternative and its expected value."
"Ambiguity aversion … is defined through the preference between risky and ambiguous alternatives, after controlling for preferences over risk."

What is the preference between an ambiguous alternative and a certain outcome referred to? For example, the choice between a certain reward and an unknown probability to win a larger reward.
I think it is not risk aversion, because an alternative’s probability distribution of the outcomes is unknown, and not risk ambiguity because one alternative does not entail a risk.

One Answer

A sure outcome is just a special case of a risky alternative with a degenerate probability distribution.

Under a set of appropriate conditions, the choice of a sure outcome over an ambiguous alternative can be attributed ambiguity aversion. But since different authors define ambiguity aversion somewhat differently, the "appropriate conditions" also differ. On the other hand, choosing a sure $100 over an uncertain distribution over $1 and $2 can hardly be called ambiguity averse.

Correct answer by Herr K. on May 1, 2021

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