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One-step Binomial model's Radon-Nikodym derivative

Economics Asked on June 26, 2021

In the one-step binomial model…


Question 1: What exactly is a ‘$frac{d mathbb Q}{d mathbb P}$‘?

I think it’s $frac{d mathbb Q}{d mathbb P} = frac{q_u}{p_u}1_u + frac{q_d}{p_d}1_d$, so it’s some asset with payoffs $frac{q_u}{p_u}$ and $frac{q_d}{p_d}$, expected value of 1 and replicating portfolio $(x,y)$ of

$$x=frac{1}{1+R}frac{u(frac{q_d}{p_d})-d(frac{q_u}{p_u})}{u-d}$$
$$y=frac{1}{S_0}frac{frac{q_u}{p_u}-frac{q_d}{p_d}}{u-d}$$

This seems to be some replicating portfolio that is expected to payoff 1 at $t=1$.

Well, $(x,y)=(frac{1}{1+R},0)$ seems to give the same payoff but with -100% lower risk


Question 2: What exactly is a/an ‘$Xfrac{d mathbb Q}{d mathbb P}$‘?

We could say that the price of X uses not

$$E[X] = X_up_u+X_dp_d$$

but rather

$$E^{mathbb Q}[X] = E[Xfrac{d mathbb Q}{d mathbb P}] = X_ufrac{q_u}{p_u}p_u + frac{q_d}{p_d}p_d$$

I guess it’s some asset that pays $X_ufrac{q_u}{p_u}$ or $X_dfrac{q_d}{p_d}$ then replicating portfolio is…then idk. Not sure we need one since we’re using real world probabilities anyhoo

One Answer

In economics, the Radon-Nikodym density $frac{d mathbb Q}{d mathbb P}$ of the risk-neutral measure $mathbb Q$ with respect to the physical measure $mathbb P$ is the price of Arrow-Debreu securities. It is a price, not a claim.

In the binomial setting, there are two AD securities, $1_u$ and $1_d$. The former entitles the holder to 1 unit of numeraire if, and only if, state $u$ realizes. The no-arbitrage price of $1_u$ is $frac{q_u}{p_u}1_u$ (say $R = 1$). Similarly for $1_d$.

In general, the price of the AD portfolio $1_{Omega'}$---which pays off 1 unit of numeraire if, and only if, state $omega in Omega'$ realizes---is $$ E^{mathbb P}[ 1_{Omega'} frac{d mathbb Q}{d mathbb P}] = mathbb Q (Omega'). $$ So $$ E^{mathbb P}[frac{d mathbb Q}{d mathbb P}] = 1 $$ is then the price of a bond/risk-free security (discount accordingly if $r neq 1$).

Extending from $1_{Omega'}$ to a general $X$ gives the usual risk-neutral pricing formula $E^{mathbb Q}[X]$, as you have written out.

Answered by Michael on June 26, 2021

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