Economics Asked by thecpaptain on December 3, 2020
I’m trying to estimate what the "necessary" economic output of a society is using Leontief input-output impact analysis. The data I have available is OECD input-output tables (see link). I’m not a trained economist, so please correct any mistakes you see in my thinking.
My idea for how to make this estimation is the following: proceed with a standard impact analysis and get the Leontief matrix L
. Then check how much economic output x_need
that remains if we let the consumers spend only a "living-wage budget" proportionally to the different sectors of the economy (so if 50% of spending in the original demand goes to say food, then 50% of the living-wage final demand should also go to food). So basically: calculate x_need
by f_need
, where f_need
is the new final demand vector that has been altered by letting private consumers only spend their living-wage-budget. Then we can compare x_old
and x_need
to see the differences in economic output.
I hope that this so far is not controversial.
Now here’s the question: how do I handle imports (and exports) in the construction of f_need
?
I want f_need
to represent the final demand of the domestic private consumers when spend precisely their living-wage-budget. Exports can probably simply be removed since they don’t provide goods and services to the domestic population. But what about imports? How do I best deal with them in my estimation? I see two general strategies for how to do so:
f_need
). This gives us f_need
, which we can use to create x_need
for comparison with the original economic output x_old
.x_need
to the economic output x_own_produce
the country would have if all imports were produced domestically. Get x_own_produce
from a final demand vector f_own_produce
that we get by assuming that all imports are domestically produced. Get f_need
by removing exports and assuming that domestic consumers only spend according to their living-wage-budget. We can then get x_need
from f_need
, and finally compare x_need
with x_own_produce
.I hope that the above is understandable. Let me know what I need to clarify otherwise.
Detailed questions:
Which of the two general strategies gives a better estimation? Are there better strategies that I can use to make my estimation?
Any (constructive) feedback is appreciated.
If you want to model exports and imports you need interregional (or multiregional) Leontief input–output model instead of standard one.
The way how these models work is that you will have separate foreign sector in your input output model, along what you can see in the table below (taken from Hewings, G. J., & Jensen, R. C., 1987):
This is in spirit similar to assuming that foreign are just some other production sector - but the issue is that spending and productivity might not necessary be the same as at home. There is also more nuance to it. I would recommend going over the above mentioned Hewings, & Jensen (1987) which has all the details on how input-output analysis is different for open economy.
Correct answer by 1muflon1 on December 3, 2020
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