Data Science Asked by BalticOY on April 25, 2021
I am working on forecasting a financial index, i tried decomposing the time series using :
from matplotlib import pyplot
from statsmodels.tsa.seasonal import seasonal_decompose
result = seasonal_decompose(dataset, model='multiplicative', freq=12)
result.plot()
pyplot.show()
And i got the following result:
The results show that the time series is not stationary and it has a unit root (I used ADF and KPSS tests) and that the mean and std are constant in time!
I am wondering if i should use ARIMA or SARIMA since they are adapted to linear trend (my trend is not linear as shown in the image) or move to using LSTM, NN … ?
Or even ARIMA or SARIMA are not adapted to this type of time series?
Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) is one option given that you have about 9 years of historical data.
You can take a model comparison approach where you split the data and see which algorithm is best at predicting the hold-out data.
Answered by Brian Spiering on April 25, 2021
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