Data Science Asked by 0009 on February 22, 2021
I’m using different forecasting methods on a dataset to try and compare the accuracy of these methods.
For some reason, multiple linear regression (OLS) is outperforming RF, GB and AdaBoost when comparing MAE, RMSE R^2 and MAPE. This is very surprising to me.
Is there any general reason that could explain this outperformance?
I know that ML methods don’t perform well with datasets that have a small amount of samples, but this should not be the case here.
I’m a beginner in this area, so I hope this is not a stupid question and somebody is able to help me!
Thanks!
First, it is impossible to say without further information about the nature of your data, the training conducted, etc. That being said, in general there is no guarantee that a more complex would outperform a simpler model in time series forecasting. In fact, this was a controversy in the earlier M-forecasting competitions, where simpler Exponential Smoothing methods outperformed the more complex ARIMA and Neural Networks (in recent years though machine learning methods clearly reign supreme). In all cases, you should compare performance against very simple benchmarks such as the $naive/ persistence$ method.
Regarding the evaluation:
Answered by Akylas Stratigakos on February 22, 2021
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