Cross Validated Asked by Cherry Wu on February 5, 2021
I’m seeing Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is not symmetric. Tried to understand what is symmetry here but didn’t find a good answer online.
Can I ask:
Consider an evaluation metric $e(hat{y},y)$ that takes a forecast $hat{y}$ and an actual $y$.
"Symmetry" has various definitions. Often they are not stated explicitly. For instance:
The MAPE is not symmetric in the first sense, because $text{MAPE}(5,3)=67%$, while $text{MAPE}(3,5)=40%$. The so-called "symmetric MAPE" or sMAPE is symmetric in this sense.
However, the MAPE is symmetric in the second sense. (And the sMAPE is not, see Goodwin & Lawton, 1999, IJF).
Symmetry is, in my opinion, mainly about aesthetics. Humans are wired to like symmetry.
Whether you should require your evaluation metric to be symmetric in one of the two senses above (and in which sense), should be guided by what you are predicting, and by how costly your errors are. I can imagine over- and underforecasts being equally costly, which would argue for a symmetric evaluation metric in the second sense above (so the MAPE, MAE and MSE would quality, but the sMAPE would not). However, I have a harder time arguing for the first kind of symmetry - when would it ever be important that switching the forecast and the actual should give the same result on the evaluation metric?
Answered by Stephan Kolassa on February 5, 2021
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