Cross Validated Asked by Sadisha on December 8, 2021
I know how to find the 95% confidence interval for normal distributions. But how to find it when there is outliers?
Question: The health-care costs, in thousands of dollars for 20 males aged 75 or over, are shown in data set. Calculate the 95% confidence interval on the mean health-care cost for such individuals.
Data set = [8.5, 8.0, 16.0, 12.0, 2.5, 515.0, 5.0, 15.0, 13.0, 2.0, 950.0, 15.0, 9.0, 6.0, 12.0, 5.5, 19.5, 7.5, 37.5, 12.5]
Bootstrap might be one way to do this. In python...
from sklearn.utils import resample
import numpy as np
x = np.array([8.5, 8.0, 16.0, 12.0, 2.5, 515.0, 5.0, 15.0, 13.0, 2.0, 950.0, 15.0, 9.0, 6.0, 12.0, 5.5, 19.5, 7.5, 37.5, 12.5])
xb = np.array([ resample(x).mean() for j in range(10000)])
low, high = np.quantile(xb, [0.025, 0.975])
This yields a bootstrap CI of (9.95 , 200.72).
However, I think there is something driving higher costs. Because your data are from older patients, I imagine some patients have more co-morbidities than others which may lead to complications and hence higher costs. In the absence if additional information, or strong assumptions on the data generating processes, I think this is going to be the best you can do.
Answered by Demetri Pananos on December 8, 2021
Quick preliminary results from R:
x=c(8.5, 8.0, 16.0, 12.0, 2.5, 515.0, 5.0, 15.0, 13.0, 2.0,
950.0, 15.0, 9.0, 6.0, 12.0, 5.5, 19.5, 7.5, 37.5, 12.5)
summary(x)
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
2.000 7.125 12.000 83.575 15.250 950.000
(1) t interval for mean. Assumes normal data, which seems a bad assumption here.
t.test(x)
...
95 percent confidence interval:
-25.47337 192.62337
(2) Nonparametric Wilcoxon CI for population median. May be slightly inaccurate because of ties in your data.
wilcox.test(x, conf.int=T)
...
95 percent confidence interval:
8.500058 21.750047
(3) 95% nonparamatric bootstrap quantile CI for population mean: $(10, 200).$
set.seed(2020)
a.re=replicate(10^4, mean(sample(x, rep=T)))
quantile(a.re, c(.025,.975))
2.5% 97.5%
9.9750 200.5269
Leave comments/questions as appropriate. More later.
Answered by BruceET on December 8, 2021
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