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Find out if increase in a series of values is statistically significant

Cross Validated Asked on November 9, 2021

Let’s say I have a series of previous year’s weekly sales for a product ${x_i}$ and the series of sales for the same product this year ${y_i}$. How can I find out if the increase in sales are statistically significant?

Edit: Context: I have weekly sales of a group of items for the previous year. We ran a marketing campaign for that group and again recorded the weekly sales for the current year. I want to know whether running the campaign had any significant impact on sales. I’ve seen answers related to changepoint analysis, but I don’t think that applies here. The item sales need not necessarily form a time series fit for regression and all. Since I want to get the broad impact of the campaign of sales on those items, I’m not worried about item-level impact.

One Answer

It sounds like you just want to look at if the change in the total number of sales (or income you could do the same with income) is significant. For this you will need a t test. For each week you should sum the number of sales (or income). So rather than the number of sales for each item, it should just say the number of sales. Then run a t test as you said earlier. Your two groups are "Before" and "After".

Remember the t test will tell you the significance of the difference in sales, not the magnitude. The magnitude is the difference between the mean of the two groups.

Answered by Harry on November 9, 2021

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