Coronavirus mutation: bad luck or a consequence of vaccination?

Question

I would like to know whether a mutation within a virus (such as the new coronavirus mutation that appeared in England source) is a consequence of the vaccination program - maybe because it is stimulated to “fight against the vaccine”? Or whether it is just bad luck and the virus just happened to mutate during this vaccination time?
Additionally, if there any other historical evidence, can you cite examples?

Chris · Accepted Answer

This is simply a coincidence. A RNA Virus will mutate all the time (although this one is pretty stable), there are thousands of known mutations (see Nextstrain for detailed information).

It is only a matter of time, until one of these will dominate the others. It may also be the effect of a few superspreading events where one virus type is strongly promoted, although it bears no or only a little effect over the other virus strains. Time and research will tell.
However, it is pretty much unlikely that one mutation in the spike protein (or even a few ones) will render the vaccine useless. The reason is twofold: First, the whole spike protein has a size between 180 and 200 kDa (source) meaning the protein has a lot of different epitopes against which antibodies can be directed. To render the vaccine useless, the whole protein had to be different.
This brings us to the second problem, because the spike protein is the protein which interacts with the target cell. If it would completely be changed, the virus would need a different receptor to interact with in order to enter the cell. Highly unlikely to happen, as the virus would need to "re-invent" it path of entry. As far as I know this has never been observed before.

Vadim · Answer

As it has been pointed in the comments by @user438383, the mutation itself cannot be a consequence of the vaccination program - what is really suggested is that this is an escape mutation, i.e., adaptation that makes the virus viable in vaccinated persons.
However, there is no evidence (yet) that the new strain affects those who have been vaccinated - it well may be that these people are equally protected against this new strain. Moreover, chronologically the new mutation likely preceeds the vaccination campaign that has began only recently (even if it was detected/reported just after the beginning of the campaign).

Coronavirus mutation: bad luck or a consequence of vaccination?

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