How Rare is this?

Question

I've been playing some Stardew Valley and I was fishing since its a lucky day. I got a fishing treasure chest with both a Neptune's Glaive and a Broken Trident in it. I'm just wondering how rare it is to have gotten both of these items in one chest. On the wiki it says they both have a 0.7% chance of being found in a fishing treasure chest separately. I don't have any accessories or skills that increases the chance of rare items / treasure chests being found whilst fishing, unless the normal fishing bait and a fiberglass rod changes the chances. (I'm just on the latest version)

OrangeDog · Accepted Answer

A rough calculation:
P(2+ items) × P(chance of Neptune's Glaive) × P(chance of Broken Trident) = P(chance of both together)
0.4¹ × 0.007 × 0.007 = 0.0000196 ≈ 1:50,000

So pretty unlikely. This ignores complications such as if the quoted chance is rolled for each slot instead of being the total chance of getting it in any chest. It also assumes the selection of each item is completely independent.

¹ The official wiki says chance of a single item in a chest is 60%, and the complement of that is 40%.

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