Arqade Asked by Addison on January 17, 2021
I ran into an interesting problem while trying to figure out the average time a hero would spend stunned if they were attacked continuously with a bash item or ability.
For example, if I was playing Slardar, and had a 25% chance bash for 1 second, and could attack twice a second, then what percentage of time can I expect my opponent to be bashed for? I want to know what the increments are, so that I can figure out when it’s worth it to level that skill.
I came up with the following state diagram to help me through it. The states represent a half-second period after each attack.
Note that new stuns will refresh old ones (not stack). For example:
ACTIVE… MISS
=ACTIVE… HIT
=STUNNED (for this round and next)… HIT
=STUNNED (for this round and next)… MISS
=RECOVERING (for this round)… HIT
=STUNNED (for this round and next)… MISS
=RECOVERING (for this round)… MISS
=ACTIVE…
Is there a formula which would fit any number of seconds, and any percent chance of stunning?
Pseudo-Random
As it was commented the 25% isn't a constant in each attack but more an average of times it will proc from a bigger pool of attacks.
How does it work, the real chance to stun is 8% per attack at full level, every time it doesn't proc this chance is increased another 8.5% until stuns the target and then it resets to the base of 8%.
P(T): The chance for the skill to proc 25%
P(A): The average for the skill to proc 24.90%
C: Contant value from the Pseudo Random distribution 0.08475
Max N: The minimum number of hits that would occur until the next one is a sure proc: 12
Most Probable N: The amount of hits to get a proc: 3
Average N: The average hits until get a proc 4.02
Answer:
If you hit every 0.5 seconds and the average proc it's at the 4.02 hit then the target could be stunned every two seconds.
Answered by Tridam on January 17, 2021
There is no such general closed form solution available due to the Abel-Ruffini Theorem, since solving for the pseudorandom value C involves a polynomial in degree N, where N > 4 for all P < ~46%.
First, given your proc chance P, determine the PRG value C using one of the methods detalied in the answers to the question Calculating the constant C in Dota 2 pseudo-random distribution.
Next, define N = ceil(1/P)
Then, we define a series of functions:
p(n) = min(Cn, 1)
inv(n) = 1 - p(n); inv(0) = 1.
cml(n) = cml(n-1) * inv(n); cml(0) = 1.
nfr(n) = cml(n-1) - cml(n); nfr(0) = 1.
wgn(n) = nfr(n) * n
tf(n) = wgn(n) / SUM(wgn(n in 1..N))
The logic goes as follows: p(n)
is the chance of bashing on the nth successive hit in a chain of non-crits. inv(n)
inverts this, so we have the chance of missing (the bash) on each hit. From this, by using the multiplication rule, obtain cml(n)
, the cumulative chance of getting to n
misses. E.g. if cum(6) = x
that means there's a chance of x
that any chain of attacks is 6 or longer. Then by differencing this function obtain nfr(n)
which is the fraction of chains that is n long. Next, weigh this function by the length of the chain to obtain tf(n)
, the "fraction of time spent in a chain of length n".
Next, we need to adjust for something: As you observed, with high attack speed, bashes can overlap. Therefore, with a given input attack speed a
, construct the formula
b(n,a) = min(DUR / (100 * BAT / a), n) / n
Which is the fraction of time spent bashed in a chain of attacks where it takes n
attacks until the next bash. Here BAT
is your base attack time. For slardar this is BAT = 1.7
, and DUR
is the stun duration. In the example, DUR = 1
, or one second. Some example figures:
ATK N=1 N=2 N=3
100 58.9% 29.4% 19.6%
200 100% 58.9% 39.2%
300 100% 88.2% 58.9%
600 100% 100% 100%
Next, compute:
ws(n,a) = b(n,a) * tf(n).
Which is the time spent bashed in a chain of attacks, weighted by the total spent fraction of time in a chain of such length. Sum over all ws
, or
SUM(ws(n in 1..N,a)) = sf(a).
Where sf(a) is the fraction of time the target spends stunned, as a function of the attack speed. Figures for slardar are below:
+---------+-------+
| ATK SPD | STUN% |
+---------+-------+
| 100 | 14.7% |
| 125 | 18.4% |
| 150 | 22.1% |
| 175 | 25.7% |
| 200 | 29.0% |
| 225 | 32.4% |
| 250 | 35.8% |
| 275 | 39.1% |
| 300 | 42.5% |
| 325 | 45.9% |
| 350 | 49.0% |
| 375 | 51.8% |
| 400 | 54.6% |
| 425 | 57.4% |
| 450 | 60.2% |
| 475 | 63.0% |
| 500 | 65.8% |
| 525 | 68.1% |
| 550 | 70.2% |
| 575 | 72.3% |
| 600 | 74.4% |
+---------+-------+
Note that this algorithm assumes that the game is perfectly timed. In reality, durations are rounded to integer numbers of frames: the game is a discrete system, not a continuous one. Thus in the actual game the real figures will be somewhat rounded compared to these estimates.
Answered by aphid on January 17, 2021
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