Puzzling Asked by ZenBalance on December 11, 2020
There is a famous investment firm where a partner was known for having candidates walk into the room without a greeting, sit across from him at a huge desk, and start right away by asking:
"We accept 20% of the people who apply. I’m 90% good at my job [of vetting]. What percentage of people who work here shouldn’t have been accepted?"
I believe you can answer this on multiple levels. How do you go about tackling this brain teaser?
The answer would simply be:
because
example
Answered by Dmihawk on December 11, 2020
There are a lot of assumption that go into this, but this is probably the intended answer:
From the 20% intended accept rate, we get that
From the 90% success rate (assuming each kind on failed classification is as likely), we get that
Continuing from these,
The problem with this result is that
This means we should probably also count the interviewer as being one of the people who shouldn't have been accepted. :-)
Answered by Bass on December 11, 2020
The answer is quite simple:
Answered by Ian MacDonald on December 11, 2020
The answer is:
For example in a group of 100 hundred employees we might have:
Alternatively we might find:
Or:
Answered by Barker on December 11, 2020
Most people here have zeroed in on the underdefined statement of "90% good". I would try to be a good Bayesian here and start with a few of my personal observations about the real world as priors.
From these two, we can conclude that
Which we can combine with another set of priors:
The above observations point in one direction: the metric he uses must be
This assumption about the metric leads to the simplest possible solution:
The reason why this is likely considered a brain teaser is
A few further thoughts on the underspecified metric
Morale of the story: Metrology is not for hobbyists.
Also, this guy is a self-important jerk, and I wouldn't want to work for him anyway.
Answered by rumtscho on December 11, 2020
I'm going to assume that when the partner says that they are 90% good at vetting they mean they accept an unqualified candidate 10% of the time, and reject a qualified one 10% of the time.
Answered by GoblinGuide on December 11, 2020
My answer:
Explanation:
Answered by ention everyone on December 11, 2020
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