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In which congressional districts were there more votes for the Democratic candidate in 2018 than in 2016?

Politics Asked by Number File on November 1, 2020

I was thinking about the turnout of the 2018 House elections and it looked like that was a presidential election level Democratic turnout from the standpoint of House of Representatives. It even beat 2012’s vote total, which is why I said that it was presidential election level.

Which contested (i.e. Democrat & Republican candidates in both years) congressional districts had more Democratic votes in 2018 for House than 2016’s House race? I want to know how the turnout was spread at the district level.

For example; New Jersey’s 7th district. In 2016, Peter Jacob won 148,188 votes. This was beaten in 2018 by Tom Malinowski, who won 166,985 votes.

One Answer

Using MIT's U.S. House elections dataset, we can tell that of the 435 congressional districts, 335 were contested by both Democrat & Republican candidates in both 2016 and 2018. In 147 of these districts, the Democratic candidate received more votes in 2018 than in 2016 - these are shown below.

The district which received the largest percentage increase was Pennsylvania's 5th district. In 2016, Kerith Strano Taylor received 101,082 votes, and in 2018, Mary Gay Scanlon received 198,639 votes, an increase of ~96.5%. On the other hand, Pennsylvania's 11th district saw the smallest percentage increase in votes, from Mike Marsicano's 113,800 in 2016 to Jessica King's 113,876 in 2018, an increase of ~0.07%.

Bear in mind that Pennsylvania has such large changes due to redistricting that took place between the 2016 & 2018 elections after the 2010 redistricting was held to be unconstitutional in the Supreme Court.

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Full list of districts:

district  % increase
   PA-11    0.066784
   VA-08    0.196227
   CA-23    0.259172
   CA-24    0.310780
   IN-06    0.372781
   IL-05    0.540307
   FL-07    0.589983
   MI-01    0.631868
   AZ-01    0.717907
   FL-27    0.757552
   VA-06    0.858518
   IN-02    0.939444
   FL-17    1.051960
   NV-03    1.111194
   MI-07    1.731214
   WA-01    1.854157
   OH-15    1.888382
   CA-07    1.895052
   GA-12    2.095152
   OK-04    2.113192
   CO-07    2.253727
   CA-01    2.301926
   AL-06    2.311579
   WA-06    2.325524
   OR-01    2.576412
   FL-11    2.678149
   IA-04    2.974271
   GA-04    3.439081
   FL-19    3.468161
   MO-03    3.594095
   SC-02    3.696845
   FL-26    3.726633
   MO-04    3.737974
   NV-02    3.784933
   AZ-04    3.966985
   TN-05    3.981042
   IL-10    4.058231
   OK-02    4.222033
   CA-52    4.269722
   AR-02    4.300071
   MI-03    4.505452
   NY-24    4.841248
   OH-14    5.073831
   MI-04    5.196639
   GA-03    5.252738
   TN-08    5.400070
   VA-01    5.454416
   FL-16    5.926112
   IL-13    6.030234
   CO-01    6.076485
   NY-02    6.387993
   OH-02    6.839221
   NY-19    7.642351
   CA-49    7.899291
   OH-10    8.005019
   OH-16    8.220813
   WI-06    8.614885
   CA-25    8.825548
   FL-04    9.075233
   TX-06    9.077784
   VA-10    9.932237
   VA-07    9.940122
   TN-03   10.431791
   AZ-05   10.515921
   IN-05   10.733232
   TX-35   10.966841
   WA-05   10.989853
   NE-01   11.503948
   TX-22   11.702876
   MI-06   11.753626
   CA-39   11.823854
   UT-02   12.020943
   FL-08   12.025770
   LA-01   12.128243
   KY-06   12.435523
   MD-01   12.554284
   GA-11   12.592164
   NJ-07   12.684563
   NY-22   12.913933
   TX-17   13.240881
   MT-00   13.289206
   IA-03   13.315957
   IL-14   13.406595
   TN-06   13.509154
   CO-05   13.585730
   NY-11   13.597710
   NJ-04   13.658860
   MO-02   14.080635
   TX-07   14.258289
   AZ-06   14.400241
   FL-12   14.412195
   PA-06   14.647742
   ID-02   15.052116
   TX-24   15.538477
   PA-17   16.120811
   TX-25   16.495691
   VA-02   16.854488
   CO-06   17.002345
   OK-05   17.309461
   IL-06   17.696095
   CO-04   17.714045
   AK-00   18.177069
   AZ-02   18.493004
   NY-27   18.858038
   MI-02   18.899186
   UT-04   19.002231
   NM-02   19.073822
   MI-11   19.317071
   CA-04   19.418396
   TX-12   19.683279
   TX-02   19.715457
   TX-10   19.858534
   OH-07   19.966978
   MI-08   20.230056
   NJ-03   20.346439
   TN-01   20.792333
   KS-04   20.798822
   WI-05   20.884544
   CA-50   21.035062
   WA-03   21.354532
   KS-03   22.410625
   GA-07   22.580109
   NY-21   22.943461
   CA-45   22.962757
   NJ-02   23.319620
   CA-48   23.585327
   TN-07   25.197007
   TX-03   26.333394
   TN-02   26.705750
   KS-02   27.900661
   GA-06   28.196322
   WA-08   28.475572
   WI-01   28.508546
   TX-26   29.025363
   TX-21   29.789234
   IN-03   31.181558
   TX-31   31.304164
   SC-01   31.587042
   OR-02   36.250938
   CA-22   37.953839
   NJ-11   41.119528
   OH-12   43.158614
   WV-03   53.576889
   LA-04   56.581292
   PA-10   57.719070
   PA-04   86.575168
   PA-05   96.512732

Correct answer by CDJB on November 1, 2020

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