Politics Asked by Number File on November 1, 2020
I was thinking about the turnout of the 2018 House elections and it looked like that was a presidential election level Democratic turnout from the standpoint of House of Representatives. It even beat 2012’s vote total, which is why I said that it was presidential election level.
Which contested (i.e. Democrat & Republican candidates in both years) congressional districts had more Democratic votes in 2018 for House than 2016’s House race? I want to know how the turnout was spread at the district level.
For example; New Jersey’s 7th district. In 2016, Peter Jacob won 148,188 votes. This was beaten in 2018 by Tom Malinowski, who won 166,985 votes.
Using MIT's U.S. House elections dataset, we can tell that of the 435 congressional districts, 335 were contested by both Democrat & Republican candidates in both 2016 and 2018. In 147 of these districts, the Democratic candidate received more votes in 2018 than in 2016 - these are shown below.
The district which received the largest percentage increase was Pennsylvania's 5th district. In 2016, Kerith Strano Taylor received 101,082 votes, and in 2018, Mary Gay Scanlon received 198,639 votes, an increase of ~96.5%. On the other hand, Pennsylvania's 11th district saw the smallest percentage increase in votes, from Mike Marsicano's 113,800 in 2016 to Jessica King's 113,876 in 2018, an increase of ~0.07%.
Bear in mind that Pennsylvania has such large changes due to redistricting that took place between the 2016 & 2018 elections after the 2010 redistricting was held to be unconstitutional in the Supreme Court.
Full list of districts:
district % increase
PA-11 0.066784
VA-08 0.196227
CA-23 0.259172
CA-24 0.310780
IN-06 0.372781
IL-05 0.540307
FL-07 0.589983
MI-01 0.631868
AZ-01 0.717907
FL-27 0.757552
VA-06 0.858518
IN-02 0.939444
FL-17 1.051960
NV-03 1.111194
MI-07 1.731214
WA-01 1.854157
OH-15 1.888382
CA-07 1.895052
GA-12 2.095152
OK-04 2.113192
CO-07 2.253727
CA-01 2.301926
AL-06 2.311579
WA-06 2.325524
OR-01 2.576412
FL-11 2.678149
IA-04 2.974271
GA-04 3.439081
FL-19 3.468161
MO-03 3.594095
SC-02 3.696845
FL-26 3.726633
MO-04 3.737974
NV-02 3.784933
AZ-04 3.966985
TN-05 3.981042
IL-10 4.058231
OK-02 4.222033
CA-52 4.269722
AR-02 4.300071
MI-03 4.505452
NY-24 4.841248
OH-14 5.073831
MI-04 5.196639
GA-03 5.252738
TN-08 5.400070
VA-01 5.454416
FL-16 5.926112
IL-13 6.030234
CO-01 6.076485
NY-02 6.387993
OH-02 6.839221
NY-19 7.642351
CA-49 7.899291
OH-10 8.005019
OH-16 8.220813
WI-06 8.614885
CA-25 8.825548
FL-04 9.075233
TX-06 9.077784
VA-10 9.932237
VA-07 9.940122
TN-03 10.431791
AZ-05 10.515921
IN-05 10.733232
TX-35 10.966841
WA-05 10.989853
NE-01 11.503948
TX-22 11.702876
MI-06 11.753626
CA-39 11.823854
UT-02 12.020943
FL-08 12.025770
LA-01 12.128243
KY-06 12.435523
MD-01 12.554284
GA-11 12.592164
NJ-07 12.684563
NY-22 12.913933
TX-17 13.240881
MT-00 13.289206
IA-03 13.315957
IL-14 13.406595
TN-06 13.509154
CO-05 13.585730
NY-11 13.597710
NJ-04 13.658860
MO-02 14.080635
TX-07 14.258289
AZ-06 14.400241
FL-12 14.412195
PA-06 14.647742
ID-02 15.052116
TX-24 15.538477
PA-17 16.120811
TX-25 16.495691
VA-02 16.854488
CO-06 17.002345
OK-05 17.309461
IL-06 17.696095
CO-04 17.714045
AK-00 18.177069
AZ-02 18.493004
NY-27 18.858038
MI-02 18.899186
UT-04 19.002231
NM-02 19.073822
MI-11 19.317071
CA-04 19.418396
TX-12 19.683279
TX-02 19.715457
TX-10 19.858534
OH-07 19.966978
MI-08 20.230056
NJ-03 20.346439
TN-01 20.792333
KS-04 20.798822
WI-05 20.884544
CA-50 21.035062
WA-03 21.354532
KS-03 22.410625
GA-07 22.580109
NY-21 22.943461
CA-45 22.962757
NJ-02 23.319620
CA-48 23.585327
TN-07 25.197007
TX-03 26.333394
TN-02 26.705750
KS-02 27.900661
GA-06 28.196322
WA-08 28.475572
WI-01 28.508546
TX-26 29.025363
TX-21 29.789234
IN-03 31.181558
TX-31 31.304164
SC-01 31.587042
OR-02 36.250938
CA-22 37.953839
NJ-11 41.119528
OH-12 43.158614
WV-03 53.576889
LA-04 56.581292
PA-10 57.719070
PA-04 86.575168
PA-05 96.512732
Correct answer by CDJB on November 1, 2020
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