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Is the S&P 500 really the best index/vehicle for long-term investing?

Personal Finance & Money Asked on July 12, 2021

Nearly every source I’ve read or heard has said that for long-term investing, the best option is to invest in an ETF based on the S&P 500 Index. The logic is that, over the course of many decades, there are almost no investment strategies that have proven to yield a higher average total return (subtracting fees and taxes) than the S&P 500.

As far as I’m aware, the S&P 500 index is mathematically quite simple – straight-forward weighting of the top 500 (or so) stocks based on free-float market capitalization. I find it extremely surprising that out of all the complexity of the market, the best performing strategy (in the long run) would be the S&P 500.

For example, by looking at the numbers, it seems that the S&P 600 index, which follows the same weighting formula using the same class of stocks but only using "small-cap" American stocks, has produced a better long-term total return than the S&P 500. The average total annual return over the years 2004-2020 for the S&P 500 was 10.9%, whereas for the S&P 600 it was 12.9%. I understand the S&P 600 is more volatile due to its small-cap focus, but in the long-term it clearly seems to be the better option, right?

It seems to me that a slight shift of focus to small-cap stocks (e.g. S&P 600) generates better long-term returns than focusing only on large-cap stocks (e.g. S&P 500). To me this seems like a very obvious (and naive?) guess – smaller companies have more room to grow. But if this is true, how does it not directly contradict with the common saying that nothing beats the S&P 500 in the long term?

One Answer

In investing:

Perfect is the enemy of good.

Investing is not really about precision and eking out every last basis point of gain. It is about coming up with a good asset allocation and trying to avoid doing something dumb that will cause you to lose many years of gains in an instant.

People should be diversified in their investments. You will likely have at least some bonds in your portfolio.

Let's assume for the sake of discussion that the S&P 600 is clearly a better investment choice than the S&P 500.

With that assumption, the following two portfolios might have similar risk/reward:

  • 62% S&P 500 and 38% bonds
  • 60% S&P 600 and 40% bonds

In the grand scheme of things, you will get a similar benefit in choosing S&P 600 over the S&P 500 as you would with simply slightly increasing your ratio of stocks to bonds.

There are many ways to create a good investment portfolio and you could use either the S&P 500 or the S&P 600, and it just isn't that important which one you choose.

Answered by gaefan on July 12, 2021

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