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FCF Calculation Discrepancy

Personal Finance & Money Asked by Edward Masters on February 2, 2021

I’m trying to calculate the Free Cash Flow (FCF) for a some public companies. My understanding is that the FCF formula is:

FCF = [Operating Income] - [Taxes] + [D&A] - [Chg in NWC] - [CapEx]

I am using Seeking Alpha’s financials to calculate the FCF for Kroger (Symbol:KR) FY ending 1/31/16. I noticed that on the Cash Flows tab, Seeking Alpha calculates the FCF for you, but since I’m learning, I tried it myself. However, I couldn’t come up with the same result, as below (in millions USD)…

FCF = 3,622 - 1,045 + 2,089 - (-111) - 3,349
FCF = 1,428

Seeking Alpha’s FCF calculation shows:
Levered FCF = 1029.5
Unlevered FCF = 1,330.8

I even tried checking it with the "shortcut" formula:

FCF = [Operating CF] - [CapEx]
FCF = 4,917 - 3,349
FCF = 1,568.0

Questions

  1. How is Seeking Alpha calculating the value they are getting? I’m
    using their numbers…
  2. Am I calculating the FCF correctly? I want to
    be able to know what goes into FCF calculation to be able to more
    accurately understand how to project future FCFs.

Thank you!

One Answer

I can't reconcile SeekingAlpha's numbers (I've never considered them a reliable data source), but your formula for OCF is just an estimate using the largest "buckets" that apply. You should just use the actual reported Operating Cash Flow and not try to calculate it yourself. It is not a straightforward calculation (SA uses 12 different "buckets") and you can only get it by using the cash flow statement that will already have the total for you.

Second, your formula is fine as a projection since most analysts don't project smaller items like "change in other net operating asses", so using the largest buckets and assuming that other items "even out in the wash" is acceptable. It also means that you may not be able to reconcile back to the financial statements exactly because of this other noise.

Answered by D Stanley on February 2, 2021

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