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Am I okay in not using EC model when series are co-integrated?

Cross Validated Asked on December 1, 2021

I’m working with some panel data, and I’m interested in estimating the parameters of the following process:

$$Delta y_{t+1} = alpha + delta t+beta_1 ln y_t + beta_2 ln x_t+epsilon_t$$

Where $y_t sim I(1)$ (and $Delta y_t sim I(0)$). Hence, we have a cointegration relationship:

$$alpha + delta t+beta_1 ln y_t + beta_2 ln x_t sim I(0)$$

Similar work approaches this estimation problem by using error correction models using the above relationship as the co-integration relationship. Why should I do this, as opposed to simply estimating the model directly?

My intuition says that the direct approach should be valid because both sides are $I(0)$ to begin with.

One Answer

What you have given is the same as the Johansen long-run VECM for a VAR(1) model. So you should be able to estimate your top linear model directly. (Do be careful, however, about violations of homoskedasticity.)

You may also find this question and answer helpful.

Answered by kurtosis on December 1, 2021

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